Perilous Republic : my latest fiction

"Perilous Republic" $US2.99 : available in all ebook stores 

Future fiction starts with a premise. You make some guesses. In "Perilous Republic" I explore the world of Melbourne at the end of the 2020s. 

There are some trends, some pressures that I think will be important. Let's start with demographics. As the population ages, we will get to the point where the majority of the population are beyond working age. This is a profound change and has far reaching consequences. 

Political parties are in the business of winning elections. If they can do this by handing out money to the majority of old people, then I think they will. Where will they get this money? They might take it from the minority of working age people or they might borrow from the future, which is essentially the same thing. We already see the use of direct election bribes in the early 2020s. It's simple. It works. But in essence it's a violation of the social contract: it puts all of the heavy lifting on the working age population. 

Nowhere is the divide more stark than in housing. Those with, and those without. It is increasingly difficult for younger people to get and keep housing. This is in large part driven by the tax benefits handed out to home owners. What had started out with the good intentions of encouraging people to buy their own home had developed into a huge speculative market. Again, the tyranny of the majority.

In the late 2020s the Pacific War is five years old. It started in 2024 when China had simply seized Taiwan. Modern warfare is not launching nuclear weapons at each other. Mostly it is shadowy incidents that take place out of public view in faraway places. There are casualties, but much of it is hidden from the general population. The military feels like it is being used in a geopolitical battle that is not of Australia's making. They are profoundly unhappy with the prosecution of the war.

The hostility in this relationship between Victoria and the Federal government is is clear for all to see in the early 2020s.  Perhaps the most unlikely thing in this book is the election of a conservative government in Victoria. See above on handouts. I believe this is a very powerful strategy, and will eventually work. 

All the social problems have logical, sensible solutions. The premise of this fiction is that these solutions are not grasped. Over the decade it gets worse and worse. Then suddenly, it breaks. Australia breaks between north and south.

It's a globalised world, so how does the young regime survive? What might be thrown at them? Given the precarious nature of international relations, it won't be as simple as a frontal assault. The north will try to displace them through covert means. How on earth do they survive? This is the starting point.

[note: a previous version of this text was available as "2032". This is a revised version.]